What is at stake in Kuala Terengganu by-election
A useful Q&A on the importance of the by-election by Reuters. It has a nice summary of why this election matters:
Ethnic Malays account for 87.4 percent of the 80,326 voters in the constituency. The main government party, the United Malays National Organisation (UMNO) won the seat in the 2008 general election by a slender majority of 628 votes, despite a massive national swing to the opposition. In the 2004 elections, UMNO had a 1,933 majority.
The government is still reeling from the 2008 election in which it lost power in five of 13 states as well as its once iron-clad two-thirds parliamentary majority. The opposition maintained that momentum with a huge by-election win for Anwar in August 2008 when he was returned to parliament for the first time in a decade.
The vote is taking place against the background of slowing economic growth. [ID:nSP419643]
Although Najib will stand unopposed in UMNO party polls in March, there are still battles for other top posts and Najib needs a big win to silence his critics in UMNO. If he does not win the by-election by a large margin, his premiership could be undermined before it starts.
Even a narrow win for the opposition would be enough for Anwar to claim the momentum of public support is still with him.
It also discusses the role Parti Islam se-Malaysia (PAS) is likely to play:
PAS wants an Islamic state and its comments on implementing Islamic criminal and civil law have in the past upset the secular parties in Anwar’s coalition, especially the ethnic Chinese party, the Democratic Action Party.
While PAS vies with UMNO for the Malay Muslim vote, it usually only performs well when it is a member of a national coalition. Eleven percent of the electorate in the seat is ethnic Chinese and PAS needs these votes to win.
[. . .]
Rural Malays in 1999 turned against then-prime minister Mahathir Mohamad. While the economic growth of the Mahathir years benefited Malaysia, its big infrastructure projects did not help the rural poor.
UMNO is likely to attack PAS on Islamic laws. Even among rural Malays, PAS’ push for an Islamic state is not that popular. It is their clean government and the neglect of the rural poor by UMNO that boosts the Islamic party’s appeal. UMNO will try to exploit the ethnic Chinese community’s fears about Islam.
And last, but not least, it lays out what this means for Anwar Ibrahim:
A resounding win would re-establish his momentum and keep his fractious alliance of PAS, urban reformers and the DAP together. Anwar, a former Muslim activist, is popular among Muslim voters, despite his imprisonment for sodomy and corruption in the late 1990s and new charges of homosexuality that are in the courts.
The Kuala Terengganu by-election will provide an important reading on his popularity with rural Malays, a key voter segment whose support will be required if the opposition is to win Malaysia’s next general election, scheduled for 2013.
It comes down to momentum and appeal to key voting segments. If Anwar can regain the former and show success with the later it will appear that he still has the upper hand going forward. But a weak showing would reveal that he really has lost his momentum.
Problem for Anwar: keeping them together
The opposition coalition led by Anwar is having trouble staying together:
A group of Indian leaders from the Pakatan Rakyat, Malaysia’s opposition alliance, has sent an ultimatum to opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim to solve their problems or prepare for “further action”.
The opposition alliance has witnessed rumblings as its ethnic Indians have complained that the two million-plus community was being marginalised.
They have asked Parti Keadelan Rakyat’s (PKR) de facto leader Anwar Ibrahim to solve their problems.
The leaders have conveyed to Ibrahim that they would be forced to mull “further action” if their call is not heeded.
The local issues are also causing problems for Anwar in dealing with excessive Islamic criminal laws:
The political party of Malaysia’s former deputy premier Anwar Ibrahim denied Sunday it would push to impose strict Islamic laws, such as punishing theft by amputation, if they come to power.
Speculation has been rife about what Anwar’s party would do after a member of his opposition coalition said last week that Hudud — an area of Islamic criminal law covering punishments for certain deeds — would be instituted for Muslims in multi-ethnic Malaysia.
The speculation deepened because Anwar has yet to respond to those comments, but a member of his Keadilan party said it had no plans for Hudud in the country
The net result of this is going to be a gain for likely incoming PM Najib, and a continuation of common problems:
OPEN feuds are a never-ending problem in Pakatan Rakyat, a coalition of mismatched opposition parties. Parti Keadilan Rakyat, Parti Islam Se-Malaysia and the Democratic Action Party have dissimilar aims and divergent policies.
Islamist Pas and the secular and socialist DAP have tried to work together in past elections, but their differences have always pushed them apart. When the same three players formed “Barisan Alternatif” to contest the 1999 general election as an electoral pact, they were paralysed by internal bickering, particularly between Pas and DAP over the former’s insistence an Islamic state. DAP left that alliance in 2001.
Najib Razak’s Big Challenge
The Malaysian Insider takes a look at the challenges ahead for Najib Razak. They argue that the focus has to be convincing voters that he and his party are serious about reform:
Months later, Umno members do not seem to recognise that the party’s deepening insularity, arrogance and disconnect from the ground have driven supporters away. It continues to shoot itself in the foot with unpopular policies such as the refusal to even review the controversial Internal Security Act and its members’ racist remarks and blunders.
The Umno elections will show whether the party wants more of the same or is willing to reform. Will they vote in the liberal voices of reform, or those who prefer to be insular? It matters because these leaders traditionally hold senior government posts.
[. . .]
If and after he becomes Malaysia’s sixth prime minister, Najib will have to wrestle with huge challenges. He will need to unite Umno and soothe Malay fears, while fortifying an anemic Barisan Nasional.Both tasks, however, may not be mutually compatible. And the opposition will give him no room to breathe.
These challenges will play out in the upcoming elections:
Although opposition leader Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim’s credibility has been dented after he failed to topple the government as he threatened, he is not likely to give up.
He may have switched focus for now to Sarawak, which is due to call an election in 2011. But there is talk that the state government may want to hold it this year, and Anwar has been visiting the state regularly.
If elections are indeed held then, it will be the battle of the year.
But it will not be the first. That honour goes to Kuala Terengganu, which has called a by-election for Jan 17, after Umno MP Razali Ismail died last November.
It will pit Umno against Pas — a war for the hearts of the heartland Malays and for the Chinese who make up about 10 per cent of the voter base. It will be the first by-election where both sides are without an incumbent’s advantage.
The way this is playing out local elections and party decsions are going to have large ramifications for national politics. And all of it is going to be taking place with a background of significant economic challenges on a global level.
The Challenge of 2009
The Star offers a succinct outline of the challenges facing Anwar Ibrahim in 2009:
2009 will prove challenging for Anwar and Pakatan Rakyat. With the advent of a new prime minister – which has historically led to a favourable shift in political sentiment towards the government – they will have to consolidate their positions significantly in the Pakatan-led states and the Federal Territory by demonstrating powers of performance that will illustrate their commitment to the principles of accountability, transparency and openness.
The worldwide economic fallout will dominate and serve as a test for the BN government in its handling of the ramifications of the downturn and the sacrifices it is willing to make. It is an opportune time for Anwar and the Pakatan government to come up with comprehensive alternative policies as a way to introduce and fortify the virtues of the Pakatan-devised New Economic Agenda. The PR opposition has already made significant strides by introducing a shadow cabinet and it remains to be seen how it can offer rational, deliberated alternatives to government policies.
The challenges are similar for both parties: to show that they are responsive to the concerns of citizens and that they have the policies and ideas that can lead Malaysia forward in a difficult time. The party that can convince voters that it is both competent in the management of government and capable of inspiring Malaysians will be rewarded.
Parti Keadilan Rakyat condemns the latest killings in Gaza
I suppose this is not surprising:
Parti Keadilan Rakyat (PKR) has called on all Malaysian political parties to support a motion in Parliament to condemn the latest killings in Gaza to demonstrate the country’s unified stance against state terrorism and illegal occupation.
PKR deputy president Dr Syed Husin Ali said it has become routine for Israel to display their military might during important celebrations.
“This time, it happened just after Christmas, when Muslims observe the first day of the year 1430 of the Islamic calendar and the beginning of Muharram, one of the four sacred months in Islam.
“On this occasion, we urge Malaysians to pray for all the oppressed people of the world and hope there will be more careful and informed decisions on the part of powerful leaders, so that sanity and humanity can return to the occupied territories,” he said in a statement here today.
He said Israel’s air raids on Gaza on the eve of the Muslim new year underlines yet again the nature of the Zionist state which pretends to negotiate but continues to kill and destroy.
It is always Zionism when Israel acts but Hamas is just another example of oppression when they launch missles into Israel.
Keadilan: no plans for Hudud
I guess we have an answer on the Hudud question. Sort of:
The political party of Malaysia’s former deputy premier Anwar Ibrahim denied Sunday it would push to impose strict Islamic laws, such as punishing theft by amputation, if they come to power.
Speculation has been rife about what Anwar’s party would do after a member of his opposition coalition said last week that Hudud — an area of Islamic criminal law covering punishments for certain deeds — would be instituted for Muslims in multi-ethnic Malaysia.
The speculation deepened because Anwar has yet to respond to those comments, but a member of his Keadilan party said it had no plans for Hudud in the country.
“Our position is clear,” said Tian Chua, Keadilan’s information chief, who said Anwar was currently out of the country.
“Islamic criminal laws for Muslims is not part our struggle. It is also not part of the coalition’s plan to introduce it when we come to power,” he said.
I guess Anwar is unwilling to take on the issue himself. Perhaps, he hopes it will blow over without causing further strains within the coalition.
Just how Anwar plans to share power with the Islamicists whould he become PM remains a critical question.
What role Islam in Anwar’s Coalition?
The Islamicist party PAS has once again stirred up controversy and threatened to bring discord to Anwar Ibrahim’s opposition coalition. It started when Datuk Husam Musa, vice-president of Parti Islam SeMalaysia, said the party would push to implement Islamic criminal laws if the Pakatan Rakyat (PR) alliance takes power:
While Mr Husam did not say what he meant by implementing hudud, the Islamic criminal laws are understood to mean they will have provisions to chop off the hands of thieves and stone adulterers.
Mr Husam spoke about the PAS plans for hudud law in a debate last Saturday evening in Kelantan’s capital, with Umno Youth’s deputy chief Khairy Jamaluddin.
‘We do want to implement hudud but this was blocked by Umno. If Umno fell (in elections), God willing, we can implement hudud. I want to give you the guarantee that we will do it,’ Mr Husam was quoted as saying by Umno-owned Utusan Malaysia daily yesterday.
And now pressure is growing for Anwar to address it:
More voices have joined the roiling debate over hudud, with Wanita MCA adding to the number of those calling for Opposition Leader Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim to clarify Pakatan Rakyat’s (PR) stand on the matter.
Earlier today, DAP chairman Karpal Singh had also repeated his call for Anwar to “break his silence, as DAP has done so” with regards to the support for hudud by Pas, the third partner of the coalition.
Pas vice-president Datuk Husam Musa had said that the Islamist party has not forgotten its aim to implement hudud, which prescribes amputation, whipping and stoning for criminal offences, should it come into power.
When DAP criticised the statement, Pas spiritual leader Datuk Nik Abdul Aziz Nik Mat challenged DAP to make its case as to why hudud laws are not acceptable.
“Husam’s statement has resulted in anxiety among non-Muslims in the country. Pas firmly insisting on introducing hudud has ignored the fact that Malaysia is a multi-racial and multi-religious country and the spirit of Federal Constitution”, Wanita MCA chief Datin Paduka Chew Mei Fun said today.
Given that Karpal and DAP secretary-general Lim Guan Eng have already asked Anwar to clarify, Chew said that the de facto PKR leader must “respect the request of the two DAP leaders and respond to Husam’s remark accordingly.”
“If Anwar decides to keep quiet, there are only two possibilities, one; Anwar agrees with the remark made by Husam to implement hudud or DAP has been marginalised in PR,” she said.
It should be interesting to see how this debate plays out in the run up to the Kuala Terengganu by-election. Will it slinter votes in a critical election or will it blow over by then? It is also interesting that a PAS member would again make this type of claim when few seem to believe the threat is real or that the party has the ability to implement such policies.
It is clear that race and religion will continue to play a role in the heated politics of the next few years.
Should we be worried about Iranian Malaysian ties?
Should stories like this one be cause for worry?
President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad emphasized that Tehran and Kuala Lumpur share common views on global issues.
“This common viewpoint increases our common responsibilities on the issues of the Islamic world and global issues,” he said in a meeting with the visiting Malaysian Prime Minister Abdullah Bin Ahmad Badawi on Monday.
“Such a common viewpoint increases the responsibility of the two countries for more cooperation and coordination.”
The president went on to say that agriculture, tourism, new technologies, energy, food, campaign against drug trafficking and terrorism” are the potential fields for cooperation.
The president insisted that Tehran favors expanded ties with Malaysia.
Is this just finding economic development opportunities where you can or is this a more complex relationship?
It would be hard to argue that Iran has been a positive force in the international community. And, despite the language about terrorism above, it is a source of terrorism rather than part of the coalition against it. Iran is not a model in the political, religious, or economic sphere. So any influence it might have on Malaysia would likely be negative.
An issue worth keeping an eye on for sure.
Indonesia and Malaysia sign border security pact
More signs that security issues continue to be critical in Asia:
Indonesia’s West Kalimantan military command and the Malaysian military have signed a MoU on cooperation and supervision over border areas between the two countries.
“The MoU is a follow up on a recent agreement signed between the two countries,” Maj. Gen. Tono Suratman, chief of the military command, said to Tempointeraktif.com.
Tono said the agreement related to the coordination of military personnel in the border areas. Both countries will each station two battalions of troops in Simanggaris (East Kalimantan), Etikong (West Kalimantan, and Biawak (Sarawak, Malaysia).
The agreement is expected to relieve tension between the two countries over illegal logging, human trafficking and terrorism.
Even former PM Mahathir Mohamed is involved in trying to bring peace and stability to the region:
Deputy Chairman of Committees in Parliament and Member of Parliament of the JVP, Mr. Ramalingam Chandrasekar has met former Prime Minister of Malaysia Dr. Mahathir Mohamed. The meeting had taken place at Dr. Mahathir Mohamed’s office on the 87th floor of Twin towers in Kuala Lumpur in Malaysia last Thursday.At the discussions Mr. Chandrasekar apprised the former Prime Minister regarding the current political situation in Sri Lanka and made a special clarification regarding the reverses Sri Lanka was undergoing due to separatist terrorism. Mr. Chandrasekar had also asked Dr. Mahathir Mohamed to mediate to prevent certain organisations in Malaysia from supplying arms and supporting Tiger terrorists.
In response Dr. Mahathir Mohamed had said “Terrorism is a challenge for the whole world. Unfortunately, Sri Lanka too has been made a prey to this. However, people in Sri Lanka are efficient, intelligent and have a correct vision. Some of them have become very large capitalists in Malaysia. You would be able to find a solution for this issue very soon. We support your efforts,” he added.
Certainly the economy is a critical issue in these uncertain times, but securoty and terrorism have not receded.
Cleaning Up Malaysia
The Wall Street Journal Asia weighs in on the reform debate:
This week Malaysia passed its most aggressive anticorruption legislation in a decade as well as a bill that aims to protect judicial independence.
These steps are worth applauding, but they’re a far cry from the reforms that Malaysia needs. Like many young democracies, Malaysia lacks the full separation of powers between the legislative, executive and judicial branches that lies at the core of successful democracies. Until these branches of government can act as checks and balances against each other, band-aid reforms will make little difference.
[. . .]
Mr. Abdullah is expected to step down in March, and he has made judicial reform and anticorruption efforts high priorities during his last months in office. Bravo to him for drawing public attention to the problems. It will be up to a successor to establish the full separation of powers that Malaysia’s democracy needs.
The article’s subtitle seems to capture the sentiment of many in the media: “Baby steps in the fight against corruption.”
